How to Get 20x Return on TSLA

[Music] welcome to the tesla economist please hit the thumbs up and remember to subscribe you can follow me on twitter and talk to me on patreon test the stock price three thousand dollars it certainly has a nice ring to it and as early as 2024 wow that's gonna be some retirement three thousand dollars really is a big number in fact unfathomable for me really the level of wealth it could take me relative to my spending habits i'm pretty sure a lot of you are eyeing it up too a good chance retirement improves a few levels for you also especially for those of us holding leaps too i think we'll be extra happy to hit three thousand dollars in 2024 with those right leaps those long term call options with expiry dates of up to around two years a potential way to lock in today's low low tesla prices so you can exercise them in a couple of years when you saved up enough cash at least that was my initial strategy in buying leaps but i'm starting to branch out a little bit more now on my options strategies i think two years leaps are not quite hitting my threshold of risk or excitement nowadays now just to refresh everyone what i mean by that for starters i'm only putting 10 of my portfolio into leaps they are all still options and thus have the potential to going to zero even though they're two years out i still class them under my high risk portfolio anyway i'm extending my options trading strategy somewhat and looking at alternative strategies i guess more exciting more greedy strategies if i'm honest of course with higher risk but much higher rewards and i've actually banked some fairly decent profits with my leaps trading i was thinking about rolling the dice for some higher risk perhaps my trading skills are improving and i'm ready for the next level either that or i just got lucky and now have a full sense of security therefore i'm looking at different options rather than just the furthest possible expiry date close to the money which was my previous buying criteria and only when we're facing a dip on a dip a double dip i don't intend on day trading regularly or anything and it may be months between any trade now of the recent events the first time it dropped the low 600s and then recovered i regretted not buying that dip as it bounced back so fast so last week when we got the dip to the low 600s again when it was about 630 dollars i bought a call option with a stock price of 700 and expiry of less than two weeks i didn't tell anyone as i didn't want to encourage it i bought the full contract for about eighteen hundred dollars and sold it a few days later for four thousand dollars not too bad it just really felt like that was the bottom for me yet despite so many unqualified people telling me it's going to the 500s that was a little risky but i won for the record not that you'll know i didn't buy any other options that i lost on and i'm not disclosing i'm more than happy to disclose my losers too you can't win them all i also bought about five leaps on the recent dips too of which less than half are in profit yet short term options are high risk but give good quick returns but i can admit the trade i won was luck not skill however what about longer term options that can also give insane returns i think i could add that to my risk portfolio maybe a new asymmetric portfolio in the past we've seen tesla's stock price shoot up 5 or 10 times in a relatively short period of time when the stock runs it runs and it's looking like this trend will continue whilst markets paradigms of tesla's change over time and the more they realize truly what this company actually is when their aha moment finally arrives the stock jumps oh tesla make robots i get it now oh what a great company now no one's complaining about a five or ten times return but if you'd leveraged that it would have been significantly higher in fact some of you actually did as you showed me some astounding returns some of you got with your options trading when tesla was running and i know some of you did really well using deep in the money leaps too well what if tesla runs again i think we can all agree there is a possibility that tesla's stock price even be in excess of 3 000 in two years time there are a stack of reasons for that to occur so what if we bet on tesla hitting three thousand dollars how much could we profit within two years well my experience is in options and leaps so that would be the way i would look to benefit from a potential three thousand dollar stock price and i think i may have found it in fact i had been keeping my eyes on it during the dip and actually placed an order in that didn't hit but i was thinking of a really far out of the money option with strike price of two thousand dollars if you're holding one of these leaps and the stock price hits three thousand dollars in the next couple of years then there would be an intrinsic value of one thousand dollars there because you can exercise your contract and buy the stocks for two thousand dollars and sell it on the market for three thousand dollars obviously per stock not contract of one hundred so i put an offer in for one of these for 50 i think it did get close low 50s at one stage but didn't quite execute however even though the stock has increased over 10 since the contract only increased 20 so it's still not majorly expensive the pricing is due to it being so far out of the money yet becoming a little bit less far out doesn't have a major impact on the cost the biggest impacts won't be felt until it's in the money and then we start seeing some big returns now if the stock price went all the way up to three thousand dollars that's one thousand dollars profit on fifty dollars or and a hundred thousand dollar profit on five thousand dollars and okay it might not be easy to get it at fifty dollars but sixty dollars should be a possibility which is still going to come in at a 17 times return we probably have another potentially volatile month with dips okay sure you could say that about the next 12 months even if you wanted but my point is that tesla would have recovered relative to the market by about the end of next month when we can finally put this q2 behind us the rest of the market is not suffering from shanghai lockdowns in q2 what i'm saying is that although there are plenty of possibilities that the market may dip again in the future tesla might not dip so much next time relative to the market no q2 shutdowns or elon buying another public company well hopefully not therefore there may never be a more opportune time perhaps it might be prudent to wait until 2025 leaps are available in september that's an extra two quarters we get of growth it can have a huge impact plus tesla time where anything could be announced launched or some event to send the stock flying 2025 the year a lot of people spout tesla will hit 5 000 by then yeah that is a really long time in tesla world especially when the stock has been relatively flat for some time and over some time so much has happened since hence why there is a potential for the stock to break out it's all very well you think tesla might hit 3 000 and you can even sound professional saying you think there is a 25 chance that will happen and perhaps you're right but a 25 chance what happened well the stock price goes to three thousand but why would it hit three thousand dollars you can look at the potential growth trajectory especially based on historic growth you can analyze the production capacities of all the factories etc and reach that conclusion but there are other things you can also take into consideration which make things simpler what events could cause the stock to jump to three thousand dollars perhaps cracking fsd and it being approved well there's a real possibility that could send the stock to three thousand dollars what percentage chance do you place on that occurring in the next two years there's 46 eddy manufacturing the texas and berlin factory are meant to each reach 200 gigawatt-hour run rates or enough sales for well over 5 million cars a year plus all other cell suppliers i would say that is an event that could send the stock price to 3 000 we also have new factories we might even break ground on some soon china and indonesia are the next to likely to be built they should be running sometime next year meaning that by the time mid 2024 rolls around they should have each had a decent chance to ramp up they should generate about an additional million units for 2024 that could mean we see in excess of 800 000 deliveries may be as early as q2 2024 that is an insane number and we've even calculated that profits are gonna be crazy enough to justify a stock price up around you guessed it three thousand dollars all right so we aren't just pulling numbers out of thin air here there are plenty of events in the pipeline for tesla to send that stock to the moon whereas if we hoped apple would be trading about five times its value today in two years it would be harder to believe as they don't have any events that could turn the company around this much at least that we know of in fact tesla has so many insane potential events like robots and things that the stock price could even hit five thousand dollars it's a possibility but it's still always good to check ourselves for delusion of fanboy clearly there's a chance we can hit three thousand dollars within the next two years well of course there's a chance but what chance is a better question what percentage do you put on any of these events occurring 10 20 50 if you're placing an above 5 chance then this becomes an asymmetric investment as in it's more than a 1 in 20 chance of getting 20 times return personally i rank it much higher not only that the stock price only has to reach just over 2 000 to actually break even and there are still plenty of other chances of doubling or quadrupling your investment too anyway this isn't intended to be the make or break on your portfolio in fact for me if i'm honest it's just something that adds to the extra excitement of this company whilst we maintain our patience for this company to scale of course i am in no way simply throwing money away like i'm gambling this is still a thoroughly calculated move and bear in mind this is not my only strategy it would only be a very small part of my portfolio thanks for listening please hit the thumbs up and subscribe you can follow me on twitter and talk to me on patreon

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