ALIBABA STOCK: BIGGEST DEAL + PRICE TARGET

felix here and we're talking alibaba guys there 
are two big news items i want to talk about and   i also want to show you my latest discounted cash 
flow model on a conservative basis where do i see   the intrinsic value of the balance alibaba stock i 
will show you what my price target is so as always   let's get straight into it and for every one of 
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now what is the major new site the major news   item is really this year alibaba and baidu won 
the tender for china's online payments processing   cloud platform that's a long sentence what does it 
mean it means all third-party transfers in china   are going to go through alibaba cloud yes now that 
tender is awarded by the chinese government it's   a chinese centralized system for processing online 
third-party payments here and um the uh uh project   basically involves our cloud advisory serving as 
key technical service providers for this uh cloud   platform that makes advanced distributed cloud 
framework system there's six data centers spread   across china beijing shanghai shenzhen and it's 
the nucc is the basically state-owned operator   of china's nationwide centralized platform for 
processing or online transactions um and this   was established by the payment and clearance 
association of china again a government body   and is of course supervised by who the people's 
bank of china that is the chinese central bank   that we're hearing so much about with regards to 
and off late um to give you a feel for just how   big the volume there is that um during the one 
week spring festival they processed 7.8 billion   um funds and um the payment transactions 
were worth almost five trillion renminbi uh   that's a year on year rise of 66 percent 
uh on on average here so it is a massive   massive vote of confidence by the chinese central 
bank the very people who are investigating and   and who've kicked off this whole and they're not 
being enlisted in in that whole saga that we've   been lamenting about here in our community 
for quite some months now this same body   now makes alibaba cloud be in charge of all 
the third-party online payment processors and   so the whole international media just does not 
cover the trust and faith that we clearly see   here from government authorities in alibaba and 
yes also they do but you know we're focusing here   on alibaba and that's bizarre and then i kind 
of just want to encourage you guys spread that   message we need to get it out because the media 
for some reason is ignoring it so for me that is   a huge item it just shows that i i what i've been 
saying i think all along is that there is no issue   between the government and alibaba fundamentally 
they really appreciate the technology and pretty   much every other day i see a news item where some 
government agency in china is signing a new deal   with alibaba because they provide a great service 
now what's the second piece of news it's about a   little bit smaller we're going to look at that 
and then we're going to look at my price target   my cash flow model of course i can show you where 
you guys can download that for yourself so alibaba   has acquired a a takeaway company a takeaway 
delivery company in bangladesh now you might think   why do i care well alibaba is expanding quite 
aggressively in southeast asia and bangladesh   of course a very population rich country here um 
so this is a um so they've acquired elie.2018 um   it's again a platform it's a food delivery service 
platform and that's what i love them for because   they are not you know they're not acquiring um 
either service either and they're just a platform   basically connecting drivers and restaurants 
done so you know no real capex required there   apart from the platform which they already have 
so um they have uh they've expanded in things like   nail art house cleaning which is quite popular 
here in china and now they've acquired a hungary   naki a bangladesh company um that is i understand 
the second largest food delivery uh platform   in bangladesh um and actually no it says here 
in 2013 they became the largest only delivery   salesman service platform in bangladesh as soon as 
we've launched and um people have there are four   thousand restaurants on their n5 cities and they 
have 500 delivery drivers and 100 employees and   of course delivery worldwide is is a big thing 
and alibaba here is kind of collecting all the   the the important companies around southeast 
asia and um you know at the moment there are   there are nine applications in bangladesh at the 
moment and the hundred thousand orders delivered   every single day so it's a pretty sizable market 
and um you know there are uh i think it's it's   not essential it's not the biggest news item 
in the world it's not a huge huge transaction   but it just goes to show a little bit here alibaba 
is not sort of sitting on the sidelines here they   are aggressively acquiring things to grow their 
their delivery platform model here which is uh   elite up me um uh they also acquired actually 
through through and a mobile financial services   company and there's also the indian food delivery 
app zamato which they also are a shareholder so   um you know and as a private equity investor are 
in there so there is quite a lot of news out there   and there's actually guys there are so many new 
stories out in alibaba every day single day i   can't possibly share them here i do post quite a 
lot of them on our discord so do check that out   if you want now a bit of a bigger piece of news 
here alibaba group a discount the cash flow model   i just thought updated just with where we are 
put in a little bit more conservative numbers   and just see where are we on a kind of intrinsic 
value here um now what i come up with and if you   just focus on this part here basically ignore 
all the other numbers if you want to play with   those you can and i'll show you where they are 
they are on our discord you can see it here it's   my the top post here at the moment conservative 
baba to see cash flow um i was to put it sentence   financials there's a neo discounted cash flow 
here from yesterday so i i keep posting things   on there for our lovely community if you want to 
get there just click on the patreon link below   guys that's how you can get there so let's just 
look at this so what i've done basically done   here is a revenue i've um for for 2021 we've got 
a set of guidance of about 39 growth and then i'm   flattening it out quite substantially why i'm just 
assuming here a very slowing e-commerce business i   don't think that's actually going to happen um and 
i also think that new businesses that alibaba has   are going to offset any slowdown if there is a 
slowdown e-commerce and women are not seeing it   so but that's what i'm putting in here so you 
know 40 only 14 growth by 2025 uh so it's pretty   conservative i would say now my ebitda margins in 
um essentially profit margins last year were 27   20 21 should be a little bit better in 2020.

I'm 
increasing them pretty much as a percent or so   each year why um because of clout now aws amazon's 
cloud service has an ebitda margin of about 50 so   um the e-commerce margin of of uh of amazon there 
so alibaba here is is sort of 20 plus so i'm i'm   increasing it ever so slightly because that cloud 
business is starting to contribute and has from   the last quarter but it's really going to pile up 
but again i'm not putting in a huge number there   i'm just putting that up just a touch with really 
rather low revenue growth and even with that um   and and then i what i think are relatively uh fair 
valuations here in perpetuity growth rates i get   a fair value of 305 us dollars and now why do i do 
these exercises well one i like to sort of test my   my fundamental belief in the company um i actually 
think it's worth a hell of a lot more than 305 us   dollars and the analysts generally speaking agree 
with me on that but if you just sort of take into   account the kind of cloud that's overhanging us 
and i don't mean the digital one but the whole   you know investigations and anti-trusts 
and all that stuff until that gets settled   um people are being particularly bearish on 
alibaba as you've seen from my technical chart   analysis and again do check that out guys 
if you haven't yet and again i share the   the charts of course with our baba community 
um actually you can see it in our discord some   of our guys just posted that you know it was just 
basically the baba dcf on patreon check it out um   so we are talking about that if you want to join 
a a lovely valve community not just papa but also   other things of course that is supportive and 
uh there you can also ask me questions directly   and uh i i contribute to that all the time it 
beeps on my phone all the time which is fantastic   um so you know it gets me to a number and it 
sort of re-tests like my my kind of belief so   my fair value has three or five and i'm basically 
not really looking at this as a as a particularly   a growth stock i'm you know you can see how 
much i'm slowing down growth a year on year   so for me this is a very conservative number and 
it keeps keeping me it keeps me bullish basically   on alibaba i do think um hopefully by the end 
of the year the whole and saga will be resolved   they're making very very good progress very quick 
progress actually whether it's good or not as long   as it's resolved i don't really care how you 
just have to get to a new ipo and that is going   to happen and alibaba and and keep basically 
stating that as has the chinese central bank   i do think then we are gonna we're gonna fly off 
the handle but as always guys it's not financial   advice this is just me and the goats talking here 
so it's just for entertainment as you guys know if   you want to join our community i encourage you to 
do so guys um click on the patreon link below and   then you get access to my my my discount cash flow 
models all the information all the things that i   see every single day on alibaba and lots of other 
stocks and that i share with our community over   over here on on the discord so guys do check that 
out i'd love to see you over there and of course   if you hit that alert button and the subscribe 
button i love you even more for it so thanks very   much for your support everyone's helping grow our 
community here and thanks very much for tuning in

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